Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.634519 0.733023 0.838593 0.959786 1.094696 1.239884 1.407567
2025-02-16 0.446319 0.569849 0.712668 0.888555 1.097812 1.337248 1.630280
2025-02-23 0.308323 0.437117 0.598062 0.810549 1.079981 1.406348 1.827273
2025-03-02 0.207603 0.329672 0.495299 0.730076 1.047141 1.452821 2.002388
2025-03-09 0.150108 0.267131 0.439259 0.700228 1.073639 1.575344 2.284750
2025-03-16 0.106740 0.214475 0.386810 0.666343 1.089478 1.684996 2.561281
2025-03-23 0.082883 0.186769 0.366287 0.675502 1.166935 1.886264 2.980329
2025-03-30 0.057835 0.149209 0.321738 0.639411 1.171566 1.983488 3.261545
2025-04-06 0.041910 0.123811 0.292359 0.622743 1.203426 2.122845 3.614472
2025-04-13 0.029645 0.101398 0.262999 0.600478 1.222404 2.243045 3.947163
2025-04-20 0.022715 0.088900 0.250424 0.606675 1.289896 2.444825 4.418868
2025-04-27 0.016775 0.076128 0.233890 0.602007 1.336946 2.616347 4.853938
2025-05-04 0.012134 0.064936 0.218747 0.599287 1.390706 2.809490 5.347765
2025-05-11 0.008771 0.055791 0.206011 0.599522 1.450449 3.018569 5.883696
2025-05-18 0.005762 0.045304 0.186056 0.579407 1.467458 3.153849 6.305623
2025-05-25 0.003432 0.034996 0.162343 0.544866 1.449907 3.224550 6.621444
2025-06-01 0.002305 0.029619 0.152006 0.541682 1.498345 3.421437 7.170530
2025-06-08 0.001439 0.024297 0.139377 0.529474 1.525107 3.578795 7.658464
2025-06-15 0.001065 0.022223 0.138196 0.549163 1.626776 3.889249 8.441562
2025-06-22 0.000592 0.017601 0.124069 0.527581 1.628946 4.002086 8.866771
2025-06-29 0.000346 0.014602 0.115281 0.520063 1.663663 4.182645 9.427670
2025-07-06 0.000181 0.011758 0.105257 0.505861 1.679599 4.324918 9.922665
2025-07-13 0.000113 0.010414 0.102399 0.515173 1.756402 4.599483 10.684179